Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression
Selected Book Details
- Hardcover
- Edition: 2
- Author: Robert R. Prechter Jr.
- Publisher: Wiley
- Release Date: November 2009
- ISBN-10: 047056797X
- ISBN-13: 9780470567975
- List Price: $29.95
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Summaries and Customer Reviews provided by Amazon
SummaryToday's financial and economic tribulations were a long time in the making. Many people ask, "Why didn't someone see it coming?" A New York Times bestselling book did see it coming. Over 100,000 people read it in time to protect their wealth. The book foresaw and explained the collapse in home prices, plunge in stocks, subprime debacle, liquidity crisis, the demise of Fannie and Freddie, the Federal Reserve's failure to turn the trend, and lots more. The book was Robert Prechters Conquer the Crash, published in early 2002, when the Dow was above 10,000 and the financial world was partying around-the-clock. Fast forward to today: the average U.S. homeowner has suffered a decline of 30% to 40% in property value. Stocks and commodities had their biggest fall since 1929-1932. Fannie Mae is a zombie corporation under the governments protection. The Fed has pushed every button at its disposal (and then some), to no avail. If Prechter thought a whole new book would help, he'd have written one. But Conquer the Crash is a book-length forecast that's still coming true -- only some of the future has caught up with the specific predictions he published back then. There is much more to come. That means more danger, but also great opportunity. Conquer the Crash, 2nd edition offers you 188 new pages of vital information (480 pages total) plus all the original forecasts and recommendations that make the book more compelling and relevant than the day it published. In every disaster, only a very few people prepare themselves beforehand. Think about investor enthusiasm in 2005-2008, and you'll realize it's true. Even fewer people will be ready for the soon-approaching, next leg down of the unfolding depression. In this 2nd edition, Prechter gives a warning he's never had to include in 30 years of publishing -- namely, that the doors to financial safety are closing all over the world. In other words, prudent people need to act while they can. Conquer the Crash, 2nd Edition readers will receive exclusive online access to the Conquer the Crash Readers Page, where Prechter continually updates the book's recommended services and institutions. |
Customer Reviews
Average Rating: 
worth reviewing after the crash of 2008/9
Rating:
i've had this book almost since it came out more than six years ago and i picked it up again to refresh my memory on what the raving Prechter got right a few years too early. he does admit he can and will be wrong at times and i think that other readers should take this warning seriously. check out some other reviews here from people that have been following him for much longer and you will get the idea.
what it does offer is good insight into deflation risks, hollow fiat currencies and how central banks handle monetary policy to avoid disasters. in that respect, its almost like a playbook for the credit/real estate crunch that started in the US and spread to much of the world.
2nd Edition Ripoff
Rating:
The 1st edition of this book is excellent and very prophetic. Many of the events that it predicted has come to past in the Great Recession of 2008/2009. In the 1st Edition, I was particularly interested in Chapter 13 on "Can the Fed Stop Deflation". Chapter 13 stated many actions that the Fed could theoretically take, to try to stop deflation, but would not dare to take. Such action include printing massive amount money to buy assets. In 2008 and 2009, the Fed has indeed taken many of the extraordinary actions that Robert Prechter Jr. claimed the Fed would not dare to take. They've implemented quantitative easing, i.e. printing massive amount of money to buy up all types of assets.
I purchased the 2nd Edition of this book because I had hoped that it would address why the quantitative easing by the Fed in 2008/2009 and massive deficit spending by the authorities would not stop deflation. I was severely disappointed because the "new" material in the 2nd Edition of this book is only a collection of old articles by the Elliot Wave Theorist dated from 2003 to 2007, before the Great Recession of 2008 even began. This book does not address the effects of the response by the authorities on his theory of deflation.
This edition came out in November 2009 and the policy response of the authorities was well defined by March 2009, so there should have been sufficient time to address its effects.
I feel ripped off paying $19.00 for this "new" book.
Came Away Disappointed
Rating:
I read the second edition of this book with great interest. I felt that the first part of the book, which he wrote in 2002 to be very accurate, and full of helpful insights. To all the people who gave the book negative reviews, it is hard to argue that in 2002 he very specifically called the financial mess we are now in, and that he specifically called out the credit crisis, bank failures, the Freddie/Fanny troubles and many other things. He did this at a time when everyone else was saying the exact opposite thing. He should be congratulated on being right when everyone else (almost) was wrong.
The reason for my bad rating on the book is that I bought the book to specifically see his new thoughts given that his original 2002 scenarios had played out. Where are we now, and what will happen next? I wanted to better understand the context of the present economic condition in light of his thoughts and theories.
Unfortunately, the "New" part of the book was nothing more than an appendix with his monthly newsletters from the last three or four years. This compilation of monthly newsletters in no way puts the present economy in perspective. If I want a newsletter format, I will subscribe to a newsletter. I buy a book to get an author to put the big picture into perspective, which the new section of this book failed to do.
I am in agreement with the author that things are about to get much worse. I am not sure that I agree with his scenario on the way things collapse. He continues to predict that the path will be rampant deflation leading to depression. I have trouble seeing that the path would not be hyperinflation leading to depression. The way to properly protect oneself in the collapse is to properly identify whether the form of the collapse will come from deflation or hyperinflation. Choose wrong, and you lose everything. If the rampant government spending/expansion of the FED balance sheet/printing money continues, I can not see how the end result would be deflation. I see a simple scenario where A) Government prints money, B) China stops lending us money, C) We print money to pay off debt/fund deficit. After reading his book, I am still not seeing how this scenario is not the one that happens. It is an important point, because in deflation, you would want all cash, and in hyperinflation you would want no cash.
I was sorely disappointed after reading the book. The "New" part of the book was not worthwhile, and the old part is ancient history.
Conquer the Crash by Robert R Prechter
Rating:
This book is the single most important book I have bought this year.
Prechter is a real world expert with a substantial and continuing body
of work to his name. The information in this book is practical and 'doable'
and will enable anyone to protect their family from the coming major
Depression, which will devastate all economies.
To be forwarned of this imminent event and given real solutions that you can
put in place now is a gift worthy of a superior intellect like his.
Conquer the Crash is worth 20 times its price and its contents is invaluable.
With gratitude,
C K Dillon
Beware the perma-deflationist
Rating:
This book originally came out in 2002. Rather than the deflation that it warned of, there have been (to date) seven years of staggering inflation. The price of a troy ounce of gold was $290 then. Check the price today. It's $953 as I type this.
There are reasons to read the book. A person who read it might have been able to predict the panic of 2008 and its consequences. But do not become a perma-deflationist like Prector. The US government has no way to deal with the unprecedented national debt other than to inflate it away or default outright. If the deflationary scenario comes about, your best investments are canned goods, seeds, property with water, and bullets.
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